Purchasing power parity and exchange rate in Nigeria: a regime switching approach.

Abstract

This study basically extends the work of Obaseki (1998) by including an additional variable to capture the impact of changes in exchange rate regime. The paper undertakes an empirical examination of the long-run co-movement in naira exchange rate and relative price levels of Nigeria and USA. The impact of the policy swap from a system of exchange rate control to a market based system (captured by a dummy variable) is investigated using an error correction model. The outcome reveals the applicability of the PPP using Nigerian data. From the analysis, the prevailing nominal exchange rate during the period closely approximates that suggested by PPP. Furthermore, the change in exchange rate regime had a considerable effect in re-aligning the naira exchange rate. The implication of this is that continued floating of the naira will in the long-run, bring its exchange rate to equilibrium.