A panel analysis of oil price dynamics, fiscal stance and macroeconomic effects: the case of some selected African countries

Abstract

The study makes use of quarterly data that spans the period from 1990:q1 to 2010:q4. A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) technique was employed to examine the impact of oil price dynamics on the economic performance of five (5) oil exporting countries in Africa. The countries are: Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria. In order to achieve this, the study used the following variables: Oil price volatility, real gross domestic product (real GDP), fiscal deficit, gross investment and money supply shocks. The impulse response functions show that of all the macroeconomic variables considered, gross investment responds more to oil price volatility than fiscal deficit, real GDP and money supply. On the whole, the findings suggest that gross investment is the main channel through which oil price dynamics influenced the macroeconomic performance of these economies.