Analysis of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies.

Abstract

This paper recognised the importance of identifying the core determinants of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies. Using a panel dynamic generalised least squares procedure, the study sought to identify the core determinants of external debt dynamics in 12 ECOWAS economies from 1970 to 2009. Overall, the findings revealed six core determinants of external debt in ECOWAS economies. Inflation, external reserves, per capita income and real oil prices were inversely related with external debt ratio; while, GDP gap and real effective exchange rate depreciation directly affected external debt. Significant dissimilarities were observed in the influence of government size and inflation within the WAEMU and the WAMZ subsamples, implying that a synchronisation of debt and fiscal policies for the two regions might yield different outcomes. Further, the results suggested that there was a wide deviation in the initial conditions in Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso from the other economies in the region.