The fluctuation of Federal Government expenditures: a statistical analysis.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the degree of variation in Federal Government expenditures during 1970-86 period, which may be interpreted to indicate the range of choice facing policy makers in determining the categories of expenditures that are amenable to wide discretionary adjustments. The analysis was done in terms of the simple coefficients of variation. The analysis of indices of predictability through Theil's coefficient of inequality was also undertaken to assess the predictive value of the various expenditure functions considered. For purposes of easy exposition, the paper is divided into five parts. Part 1 outlines the review of literature. Part 2 highlights the trends in Federal government expenditures, including the composition of and shifts, if any, in such expenditures over time. Part 3 discusses the coefficients of variation of the expenditure functions while Part 4 dwells on analysis of indices of predictability of the expenditure functions considered. Part 5 contains the summary and conclusion to the study.